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osmarks 2024-09-01 12:11:59 +00:00 committed by wikimind
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*. In situations with discrete win/loss cutoffs you may be better off increasing variance rather than expectation. *. In situations with discrete win/loss cutoffs you may be better off increasing variance rather than expectation.
*. If you predict that you will do/believe a thing in some circumstance, and predict that that circumstance will happen, update all the way and do/believe the thing now. *. If you predict that you will do/believe a thing in some circumstance, and predict that that circumstance will happen, update all the way and do/believe the thing now.
*. When deciding on a course of action in an uncertain situation, commit to something and do it properly rather than inefficiently trying to handle every possible scenario. See also [[https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FMkQtPvzsriQAow5q/the-correct-response-to-uncertainty-is-not-half-speed]]. *. When deciding on a course of action in an uncertain situation, commit to something and do it properly rather than inefficiently trying to handle every possible scenario. See also [[https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FMkQtPvzsriQAow5q/the-correct-response-to-uncertainty-is-not-half-speed]].
*. People respond to incentives, and also don't like acknowledging this. *. People respond to incentives, and also don't like acknowledging this. Intentions matter inasmuch as they are predictive of future behaviour.