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osmarks 2024-09-11 14:41:25 +00:00 committed by wikimind
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*. In situations with discrete win/loss cutoffs you may be better off increasing variance rather than expectation.
*. If you predict that you will do/believe a thing in some circumstance, and predict that that circumstance will happen, update all the way and do/believe the thing now.
*. When deciding on a course of action in an uncertain situation, commit to something and do it properly rather than inefficiently trying to handle every possible scenario. See also [[https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FMkQtPvzsriQAow5q/the-correct-response-to-uncertainty-is-not-half-speed]].
*. People respond to incentives, and also don't like acknowledging this. Intentions matter inasmuch as they are predictive of future behaviour.
*. People respond to incentives, and also don't like acknowledging this. Intentions matter inasmuch as they are predictive of future behaviour.
*. "Everything is seating charts" (Matt Levine) - "petty" minor details actually affect a lot of things, especially if they influence how you'll spend lots of your time.